Chris Fallica Doesn't Expect Renegade To Win On Saturday | Don't @ Me w/Dan Dakich
Chris Fallica joined the show to discuss the upcoming Kentucky Derby and explained why he doesn't think the favorite, Renegade will win
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is finally here. I’m no professional shark, but I’ve spent hours grinding through Beyer figures to ensure I’m not just throwing money away at Churchill Downs.
I’m focusing strictly on the late-day heater: Races 8 through 12. These are my personal picks for the biggest day in sports, culminating in the 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby.
KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE FIRST LEG OF HORSE RACING'S TRIPLE CROWN
We aren't guessing. From exactas in the Turf Classic to a trifecta box for the Derby, these plays are backed by deep dives into the horse profiles and PPs from Daily Racing Form.
Time to hit the window. Here is my Pick 5, best bets and exotics. Let’s turn this research into a payday at the 152nd Run for the Roses.
2026 Kentucky Derby Day Bet Slip
- Pick 5 (Races 8-12): L1: 1, L2: 7,12,14, L3: 1,5,11, L4: 4,6, L5: 12,14
- Race 8: $15 to Win on #1 Englishman.
- Race 9: $5 to Win/Place on #7 Alpyland and #14 Final Score ($20 total bet). $1 Trifecta Box on 7,12,14
- Race 10: $10 to Win on #1 Disco Time. $5 to Win/Place on #11 Point Fume ($10 total bet). $1 Trifecta Box on 1,5,11 ($6 total bet).
- Race 11: $15 to Win on #4 Program Trading.
- Kentucky Derby (Race 12): $10 Win/Place on #12 Chief Wallabe and #14 Potente ($40 total bet). $1 Trifecta on 14/ 1,6,10,12,18 / 1,6,10,12,18 ($20 total bet). $1 Trifecta Box on 5,12,14 ($6 total bet).
The updated 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions and morning-line odds after The Puma scratches Saturday morning. (Kentucky Derby via X)
Race 8: Grade 2 Pat Day Mile Stakes, 3:23 p.m. ET post time
Eleven horses on a 1-mile dirt track for three-year-olds with a $375K purse.
#10 Englishman (3-1 on the morning-line)
I hate betting favorites, but I cannot get past the 2-0 Englishman. Although I’m betting this race lightly and using the #10, and maybe the #4 in my multi-race wagers.
Nevertheless, he won his maiden at Churchill by 7.25 lengths and his 2026 debut by 7.5 lengths at the second- (97) and third-fastest (95) Beyer speed figures of any horse in the Pat Day field.
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Englishman has blazing-fast early speed and he should get to the rail quickly because he is running out of the first post. Three of his four workouts this month have been great and Englishman looks ready to win his first stakes race.
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Race 9: Grade 1 American Turf Stakes, 4:06 p.m. ET post time
Thirteen horses on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile turf track for three-year-olds with a $1 million purse.
#7 Alpyland (8-1)
He's won four of his last five races and has gone off as the favorite in two of his three outings this year. Alpyland has two wins and a third this season, running an 84 (twice) and 85 Beyer in those races, which is fast enough to win the American Turf.
#14 Final Score (8-1)
This being Final Score’s 2026 debut is definitely a concern. However, Final Score was 3-1 as a two-year-old. Those wins are in his last three starts, all at this distance. His last two wins were stakes races: Grade 3 With Anticipation and Grade 2 Bourbon.
Final Score's elite connections, Mike Repole (owner) and Todd Pletcher (trainer), wouldn’t put him in this race if they didn’t think he could win. Repole and Pletcher got the best jockey in horse racing, Irad Ortiz, to ride him.
Lastly, I’ll admit to my bias: Two of Final Score’s wins are in Saratoga, my hometown and the greatest race track in the world.
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Race 10: Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes, 4:50 p.m. ET post time
Eleven horses on a seven-furlong dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $1 million purse.
#1 Disco Time (6-1)
He's gone off as the favorite in all seven career races (5-1-0). The Brad Cox trainee is cutting back to seven furlongs and two graded stakes two-turn races to start the season. Disco Time has won his only race at this distance and both times he's run on the Churchill Downs dirt.
#11 Point Fume (15-1)
Point Fume has won all three races as a five-year-old, with the most recent being the Grade 2 Carter last month. His last six workouts have been insanely fast and he's run 104 and 101 Beyers in his last two races.
The Into Mischief colt has gone off at a shorter price six straight races and he won the last time he was above 10-1. Seven furlongs is a sprint and Point Fume has the second-fastest "early speed" in this field.
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Race 11: Grade 1 Turf Classic Stakes, 5:39 p.m. ET post time
Nine horses on a one-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for four-year-olds and upward with a $1.5 million purse.
#4 Program Trading (4-1)
Again, I'll show my bias, but his trainer, Chad Brown, is a native Saratogian who prints money on The Spa's turf during the summer. Program Trading won this same race two years ago but hasn't matched his 102 Beyer since.
Program Trading with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione is 4-1 on the morning-line to win the 2026 Turf Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (David Frerker-Imagn Images)
Also, he is changing jockeys and putting on blinkers for this race. Between his experience in graded stakes races and his connections, I like how Program Trading is approaching the Turf Classic.
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He has tactical speed and the third-fastest closing kick in this field. Hence, I'm expecting Program Trading to be around the lead coming down the stretch and have enough in the tank to outrun his rivals.
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Race 12: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, 6:57 p.m. ET post time
Nineteen horses on a 1.25-mile dirt track for three-year-olds with a $5 million purse.
#6 Commandment (6-1)
Entering on four straight wins, including two consecutive graded stakes races, Commandment has been the betting favorite in four of his five career races.
Commandment trains for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
He won the Grade 1 Florida Derby, which is supposed to be the best prep race for the Kentucky Derby and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. He likes the Churchill dirt and broke his maiden with a 5.25-length win in November.
#12 Chief Wallabe (8-1)
There was nothing wrong with his second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Florida Derby. He ran a 100 Beyer and lost by a neck in the Fountain and a 99 Beyer and lost by a half-length in Florida.
That 100 Beyer is tied for the third-fastest in this race, so he is fast enough to win the Derby. Chief Wallabe's trainer, Bill Mott, is a two-time Kentucky Derby winner and the reigning champion with Sovereignty.
#14 Potente (20-1)
Trained by record-tying six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert, Potente has a faster speed figure in all three career races (2-1-0). He needs to take another step forward to win the Derby, but his April 26 workout was the fastest among 23 other horses.
Potente was the favorite in two of his three races, including a second-place finish to #8 So Happy at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby his last time out. Into Mischief’s son has a versatile running style, going wire-to-wire in his maiden win and coming from mid-pack to win the Grade 2 San Felipe two starts back.
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
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